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A resurgent Congress, determined to repeat its November 2023 Assembly election victory; the regional Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS), which has recently suffered a series of setbacks and is fighting to revive its fortunes; and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is working to improve its tally in the State to contribute to its nationwide goal of 400 seats — together, they sum up the mood in Telangana ahead of polling for 17 Lok Sabha seats on May 13.
The ruling Congress in the State is striving to keep its momentum, banking on the six guarantees from its Assembly poll manifesto, of which four have now been fulfilled. It is also roping in leaders of other parties to improve its chances while taking the BRS and the BJP head on. Chief Minister A. Revanth Reddy is leading the Congress campaign, assisted by Deputy Chief Minister Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka and his Cabinet colleagues N. Uttam Kumar Reddy, D. Sridhar Babu, Ponnam Prabahakar, and Komatireddy Venkat Reddy. National leaders Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra are also planning rallies in the State.
Also read | Communal polarisation dominate election campaign in Telangana
Former CM and BRS chief K. Chandrashekhar Rao has embarked on a bus yatra covering all the 17 constituencies, though the Election Commission of India slapped a two-day suspension on his campaign for the offensive language he used against the rivals. BRS working president K.T. Rama Rao and former Minister T. Harish Rao are the other leaders campaigning for their party’s candidates.
Hoping to ride on the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the slogan ‘Ab ki baar, 400 paar’, the BJP’s national leaders are extensively touring Telangana’s rural areas to improve the party’s prospects. The Prime Minister and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have addressed more than half a dozen meetings, their speeches filled with polarising rhetoric.
Changing fortunes
The State of Telangana was officially formed in June 2014, days after the general election. The BRS (then known as the TRS) was the clear front-runner in that 2014 election, bagging 11 of the State’s 17 seats, followed by two for the Congress, and one each for the Telugu Desam Party, the BJP, the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), and the YSR Congress Party.
Five years later, however, the BRS could not reach the double digit mark, winning only nine seats despite having made a clean sweep in the Assembly elections held a few months earlier in December 2018. That 2019 general election also saw the BJP emerging as a force to reckon with in Telangana, bagging four seats – Adilabad, Nizamabad, Karimnagar and Secunderabad — and providing a foothold for the party to expand its base in a State where it hitherto had a marginal presence. The Congress, licking its wounds from the drubbing it had received in the Assembly election had managed to win three Lok Sabha seats, while the AIMIM retained its stronghold in Hyderabad.
Turncoats in demand
This time around, a quick scan of the candidate lists of the three major parties shows that several sitting MPs and senior leaders who have recently switched sides are now contesting against their previous parties. The BJP has gained the most in this regard, welcoming rivals into its fold without any reservations, hoping for an electoral payoff. BJP leaders justify their actions on the grounds that the party intends to send a considerable number of MPs from Telangana to the Parliament.
The Congress is not innocent either, having encouraged defection by giving its tickets to turncoats. In at least four parliamentary constituencies, the Congress candidates are defectors. The party’s efforts to retain its authority in the election can be seen in the CM’s repeated assertions that this election will ensure that Mr. Gandhi will become the next Prime Minister.
Over its four months in office, the Congress-ruled State government has tried to roll out some of its poll guarantees in phases, despite financial constraints. The party hopes that the goodwill it had won in the Assembly election will carry over to the Lok Sabha poll as well.
KCR’s woes
BRS chief KCR has tried to drill some confidence in his cadres by saying that the party is passing through a rough patch and this is only temporary. The party also has to deal with key leaders deserting the BRS for greener pastures.
The arrest of MLC K. Kavitha, KCR’s daughter, had cast a shadow on the party, along with the ongoing probe into allegations that some police officers and former BRS leaders were involved in the phone tapping case. The main Opposition party is also on the back foot with regard to the damaged piers of the Medigadda barrage of the Kaleshwaram Lift Irrigation scheme, touted as the biggest such scheme in the world.
Nevertheless, the BRS has started targeting the government, accusing it of depriving the farmers of their irrigation sources as their crops wither due to dried up reservoirs and last year’s erratic monsoon. It is also lashing out at the Congress for its failure to implement a promised ₹2 lakh farm loan waiver in the first 100 days of formation of the Congress government. The Chief Minister is countering that charge by claiming that the promises will be fulfilled before August 15.
Communal sentiments
The BJP has riled communal sentiments, and talks about cancelling the State’s quota for Muslims. The charge that the BJP will change the Constitution has also caught the party on the wrong foot. Another charge that the BJP is trying to ward off is the accusation that it will reduce reservations for Scheduled Castes and Tribes.
As D-Day nears, the prevailing scenario shows a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP, with the BRS also putting up a spirited fight in some constituencies. In North Telangana, the polarisation of voters along communal lines is visible in Adilabad, Nizamabad, and Karimnagar Lok Sabha constituencies. In the Hyderabad constituency, the BJP is going all out to rake up sentiments as its candidate Madhavi Latha takes on the AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi.
Unlike in the last Assembly election, where Muslims voted for the BRS and Congress alike, this year, there seems to be a clear consolidation of the Muslim votebank in favour of the Congress. This could provide a big boost for the Congress in over half a dozen constituencies, where Muslims are present in sizeable numbers.
As voters make their choice in hard-fought triangular contests, the Congress is confident of improving its tally and the BJP hopes to touch the double-digit mark; for the BRS, its political future may be at stake in this election.
