2 weeks ago
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(Read the author's piece on the seat-sharing deal of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) here.)
Berjeche Rajkaran — a term first popularised by the first chief minister of Maharashtra Yashwantrao Chavan — has defined the state’s politics for much of its history. The term which loosely translates to “politics of accretion” is used to describe the strategy of co-opting leaders and cadres from across the political spectrum — often from other parties and organisations. But as the political landscape of Maharashtra undergoes changes against the backdrop of political realignment, even the efficacy of Berjeche Rajkaran is now under doubt. The Bharatiya Janata Party with its Mahayuti alliance, consisting of the Nationalist Congress Party and the Shiv Sena, is realising the limitations of Berjeche Rajkaran.
The problem of plenty that has plagued the ruling Mahayuti alliance has resulted in its failure to meet multiple deadlines to arrive at a final seat-sharing formula. In the last week of March, Deputy CM and NCP leader Ajit Pawar claimed that 99 percent of the seat-sharing process had been completed. Since then the alliance partners have huffed and puffed but failed to arrive at a final seat-sharing formula even when the final day for filing nominations is just two days away and the first two phases of the election are already done.
As things stand today, after a series of hectic parleys, multiple rounds of negotiations and plenty of wrestling over seats- some of which were out in the open, the BJP has bagged 27 seats, the Shiv Sena 14, and the NCP has been given four. The Rashtriya Samaj Paksha has been allotted one seat and candidates on two other seats- Nashik and Palghar are yet to be formalised and announced. While Nashik is expected to fall in the Shiv Sena’s kitty, the BJP seems likely to bag the Palghar seat. If this happens, the final break-up of seats between the three main constituents of the alliance i.e. BJP-Shiv Sena and NCP would be 28-15-4 (excluding the one seat which has been allotted to the RSP).
But at least now in the short run, the BJP appears to have benefitted from the trade-off. It was widely believed that the party would contest in fewer seats than usual given that the alliance had two major players in Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP. But on the contrary, the BJP is contesting a record-high number of seats in Maharashtra this election. The BJP’s final tally is expected to be 28 seats. In the 2014 and 2019 polls, the party in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena had contested 24 and 25 seats respectively.
Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena in Damage Control Mode
The Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena would end up contesting on not more than half the number of seats than the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT)- if it manages to secure the seat of Nashik. The party might not contest more than 15 seats but contrary to what was widely believed there has been no pushover at the negotiation table. Eknath Shinde and his party were left with no choice but to bargain hard with the BJP. Appearing meek during the negotiations and settling for even fewer seats would have meant risking the possibility of their cadres and voters being demoralised. It would have also meant that undecided voters of the undivided Shiv Sena would have been much more likely to tilt towards Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena over Shinde’s Shiv Sena.
For the Shinde Sena, the stakes are much higher in the assembly polls due in October. Its failure to bargain hard now could have translated into its voters deserting the party in the Lok Sabha making it easier for the BJP to cut down the party even further in the October assembly polls. The Shinde Sena’s refusal to give in to the BJP’s demands is an exercise in damage control. The party being in the fray in not more than 15 seats and the Shiv Sena (UBT) walking away with a lion’s share (31) of seats in the MVA has only added to the party’s woes. To minimise this damage, the Shinde Sena had no option but to project to its cadres and potential voters that it is not letting the saffron party completely dictate terms.
At this stage, while the Chief Minister and his party colleagues can claim to have brokered a respectable deal with the BJP, it does appear that the party is already on the back foot in managing the popular perception of its relationship with the BJP. Thane is the CM Shinde’s home turf and the NDA could only declare its candidate from the seat on May 1, i.e., two days before the May 3 deadline for filing nominations. Ideally, there should have been no second thoughts about the Shinde Sena getting the seat.
The Shiv Sena could end up securing as many as 15 seats but the BJP’s perceived interference with the Shinde-led outfit’s decision over nominating candidates has not helped the party’s cause. In Hingoli for insurance, Shinde has originally declared the candidature of sitting MP Hemant Patil as the party’s candidate. But when the announcement was met with stiff resistance from the local BJP unit, Shinde had to drop Patil and declare Baburao Kadam Kohalikar as the new candidate. The Shinde-led outfit was also forced to concede some seats which were long considered strongholds of undivided Shiv Sena like Parbhani, Osmanabad and Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg.
Why the NCP is An Easy Ally to 'Manage' For the BJP
Unlike the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party has been an easy ally to manage for the BJP. The NCP which in its undivided avatar contested as many as 19 seats in 2019 and 21 seats in 2024 has settled down to a modest tally of four seats and the chances of it adding to its tally by bagging one of the remaining seats that are yet to be decided are almost zero.
The Ajit Pawar-led NCP’s different approach to the seat-sharing negotiations in the alliance compared to the Shinde Sena’s approach also highlights the difference in the make-up of the two parties. As a cadre-based party with its core appeal centred on its emotional pitch to its voters, the Shiv Sena led by CM Shinde could not have afforded to be seen as being undermined by the BJP in the alliance.
Most of its leaders have business interests and own sugar mills, head cooperatives or credit societies. Power has been the NCP’s biggest glue, since its inception in 1999. Facing heat from many central agencies and safeguarding their business interests is the key to survival for most of Ajit Pawar’s party colleagues.
The source of NCP’s political power is rooted in the political economy of rural Maharashtra. Thus, it was easier for the BJP to “manage” Ajit Pawar and his party. For the latter, staying in power and out of the radar of the investigative agencies is of the utmost importance.
Is the BJP Nervous?
Maharashtra being the state that sends the second highest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha (48) the BJP realises the importance of the state. In the last two elections, the BJP-led NDA won 41 out of the 48 seats in the state. But a lot has changed since the last election and much of the credit or blame (depending on whom you support or lean towards) for what has changed in Maharashtra’s political landscape goes to the BJP.
A view that one gets to hear often on the ground is that the party is nervous about repeating its impressive performances of the last two elections and in its nervousness, it has roped in too many players and parties on its side. Not only has the BJP played a central role in engineering the splits in the NCP and Shiv Sena but it has also inducted other players like the incumbent Amravati MP Navneet Rana who won the last polls as an independent and Congress stalwart Ashok Chavan.
After initial murmurs that Raj Thakceray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena would also be offered seats and accommodated in the NDA, the seat-sharing talks fell through and Thackeray offered his unconditional support to the BJP.
The biggest thing that could work against the party is the sympathy among the electorate for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. If the sympathy for the duo translates into votes for the MVA, the BJP and its allies will only have themselves to blame.
Is Mahayuti Losing the Battle of Optics?
The disagreements over seat sharing and the failure to reach the final formula till the very last moment could hurt Mahayuti’s prospects. The rival opposition alliance had declared its final seat-sharing formula 10 days before the first phase of polling on April 9. When it comes to the perception battle, the Maha Vikas Aghadi has a clear early advantage over the Mahayuti. The delays till the very last minute over declaring candidates, the open war of words over the leaders in disputed seats, and the Shiv Sena having to change its candidate in multiple seats over the BJP’s alleged interference have only added to the ruling alliance’s bag of woes. When Shinde had walked away with 40 MLAs of the undivided Shiv Sena ditching his party boss Uddhav Thackeray, Shinde and his camp cited then Finance Minister Ajit Pawar’s bias in allocating resources and funds to NCP MLAs. They had alleged that the Shiv Sena MLAs were deprived of funds by Ajit Pawar.
Furthermore, Shinde had defended his move to breakaway citing the harm that was being done by the NCP to the Shiv Sena in seats where the two parties had been directly in competition before the MVA was formed in 2019. In many seats in the hinterlands of Maharashtra, the NCP and the Shiv Sena have been direct adversaries for years. So, Shinde’s move to break away in June 2022 was widely seen as a move to safeguard the interests of local Shiv Sena leaders and cadres who had fought the NCP for years. But today, Shinde and his Sena are sharing power and contesting together with Ajit Pawar and his NCP. It has pushed the Shinde Sena on the back foot as its original reasons and claims of joining hands with the BJP in June 2022 have fallen flat.
For instance, the nomination of Navneet Rana in the Amravati seat has not gone down well with local cadres of the Shiv Sena and BJP who have locked horns with the incumbent MP on various issues over the last five years. In Raigad, NCP strongman Sunil Tatkare is the Mahayuti’s official candidate but the Shiv Sena-BJP cadres might find it difficult to bury the past animosity and fully get behind him in the polls. In Madha, Ahmednagar and Beed — three seats over which the Mahayuti partners were involved in a seemingly endless tug of war — the official Mahayuti candidate’s main opponents are rebel candidates who have left its ranks and managed to secure the nomination as the MVA candidates.
What About Vote Transfer?
It is not just rebel candidates who pose a threat to the Mahayuti’s chances in this election. The highly localised election and local satraps fighting to safeguard their home turfs means that even vote transfer among the allies could possibly not be completely smooth and seamless. CM Shinde’s own son Srikant Shinde is facing an uphill battle in the Kalyan Lok Sabha as the BJP cadres seem reluctant to put their weight behind him owing to the history of BJP-Shiv Sena rivalry in Kalyan. Similarly, veteran Shiv Sena leader and five-time MP Anandrao Adsul has refused to back the official Mahayuti candidate Navneet Rana in Amravati.
The chemistry between the top leaders is also important for ensuring smoother vote transfer between alliance partners. Even on this front, the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi seems to be doing better as Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar have a much better working relationship than any of the Mahayuti’s top leaders.
A poor performance in the Lok Sabha polls would worsen the situation for the Mahayuti in the future. It might become untenable for the BJP to accommodate so many players in the assembly polls especially if its allies fail to deliver as per its expectations in the Lok Sabha elections. Ajit Pawar and his party would definitely ask for a bigger share of seats in the assembly polls and even Raj Thackeray’s MNS which is not contesting any Lok Sabha seats would be added to the mix. If that does happen, the make-up of the alliance would likely undergo a significant change before the October assembly elections.
(An alumnus of Mumbai’s St. Xavier’s College, Omkar is currently pursuing a Research Master's degree in Politics at Sciences Po, Paris. His research interests and publications focus on issues and themes like party politics and electoral competition in India, populism, Dravidian politics, voting behaviour, and representation of minorities in India’s lawmaking bodies. Currently, he is working on the ideological transition of the Shiv Sena in the post-Bal Thackeray era. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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