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As Kerala gears up for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections on April 26 after a month-long charged atmosphere of electioneering, mainstream political parties – the Congress, the CPI(M) and the BJP – each harbour distinct strategic objectives hinging on the electoral outcome.
A stellar performance like in the 2019 General Elections could reignite the Congress’s mojo post its 2021 Assembly polls debacle in Kerala. The CPI(M) is probably aiming at increasing the number of MPs to maintain its national party status. At present, the party has nothing to fear as the Left coalition is intact until the 2026 Assembly polls in Kerala. Meanwhile, the BJP is laying the groundwork for the next Assembly polls.
Under normal circumstances, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) should roughly share the 20 seats in Kerala. However, the present situation appears to be exceptional, similar to that in 2019, even though nearly all pre-poll surveys indicate a third term for the BJP-led government at the Centre.
For the ruling CPI(M) in Kerala, its survival instinct has become relevant in Parliament, as it had won just a seat, Alappuzha, in a cliff-hanger of sorts in the 2019 elections. By transforming electoral battles into war zones through its muscular party machinery, the CPI(M) may notch up additional seats this time. That would mean it has not only bucked the anti-incumbency but also wooed the electorate through organisational heft and meticulous planning, including pitching heavyweight candidates to take on Congress MPs.
Politically on a strong footing, the CPI(M) has been cautious in gauging the electorate, which often becomes disenchanted with the ruling dispensation in the State for a multitude of reasons, even during the Lok Sabha polls. Through vigorous campaigning against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), the party leadership is anticipating that the UDF will not secure the same 65% of Muslim and 70% of Christian votes as in the 2019 polls. Even if the party underperforms, it has the option for course correction, given it still has two full years before the Assembly polls, sources said.
Striving to replicate 2019 success
For the Congress party, the leadership is striving to replicate the success of the 2019 polls banking on the anti-incumbency against the Kerala government. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s candidacy in Wayanad is expected to once again attract support from the Muslim and Christian communities, boosting the electoral chances of Congress candidates in constituencies in north Kerala.
However, if the party fails to secure 10 or more seats, it could likely disrupt coalition politics, with the anti-Congress faction in the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) upping the ante against the Congress leadership. The bone of contention between the Congress and the IUML over the winnable Rajya Sabha seat, which falls vacant in July, will further escalate, particularly if Shafi Parambil of the Congress wins from the politically and communally sensitive constituency of Vadakara, as the latter would take credit for the victory in the sweepstakes.
For the BJP, the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi five times to Kerala this year and his manoeuvred outreach programmes to various Christian denominations has turned bipolar State polity in a tripolar character in many constituencies this time. The party is aspiring to make a quantum jump in its vote share.
Securing a seat or two would be a bonus for the BJP, but the party leadership is apprehensive about a potential Muslim consolidation against winnable candidates, particularly in Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur constituencies.
Eyes on turnout
However, all parties are keeping their fingers crossed regarding the turnout as well. Historically, a high turnout has often benefitted the UDF, but it is not always the case, as various results suggest.
In the 2019 polls, the turnout was 81.3%, with the UDF winning 19 out of the 20 seats. In the 2014 elections, the LDF, including Independents, won eight seats. The turnout then was 73.9%. In the 2009 polls, when the turnout was 73.5%, the CPI(M) secured four seats, while the Congress won 13 seats. In 2004, when the turnout was 71.2%, the UDF won just one seat – Ponnani by E. Ahamed of the IUML. Except for one seat secured by the now-defunct Indian Federal Democratic Party, won by P.C. Thomas, who was with the BJP-led NDA, the LDF emerged victorious in the remaining 18 seats.
