'Khan & Baan': Changed Colours of Netas & Campaigns to Change Aurangabad's Fate?

"I have contested all three of the 2014, 2019, and 2024 elections on the basis of my work. The city where I come from, the town that I come from, it had an image of being one of the communally hypersensitive cities. The development of this city was paused because selfish politicians created a communal divide. I have strived to change that," said Imtiaz Jaleel in a conversation with The Quint, Lok Sabha MP from Chhattrapati Sambhaji Nagar (formerly Aurangabad).

In 2019, Jaleel's victory from the seat came more of a shock than a surprise to many, especially the Shiv Sena (united at the time), for he not only defeated four-time Sena MP Chandrakant Khaire, but the margin of victory was the lowest in the state with 4,877 votes.

The dynamics were simpler with the Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on one side and the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) on the other, with the former winning for four decades straight. Hence, the victory of a AIMIM-Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) candidate was unusual.

But these dynamics have now changed and the factors that worked in favour of Jaleel and against Khaire in 2019 have drastically altered since, making it one of the most complicated contest for all the candidates involved.

Let's look at four key factors on the ground, how they drove the 2019 election, and how a drastic change in these factors this may change the fate of the key candidates involved:

One of the key factors that contributed to Jaleel's numbers was the alliance with Prakash Ambedkar's VBA.

Out of the 4.15 lakh eligible voters in the constituency, close to 22% are Muslims and about 19% are recorded to be SC/STs and OBCs, many of whom are believed to have rallied behind Jaleel.

This time, however, the parties have gone their separate ways.

The VBA has fielded Afsar Khan, a four-time corporator and former leader of Opposition in the Sambhaji Nagar municipal corporation. After spending two decades with the Congress, Khan joined the VBA on 3 April, the same day the party announced his candidature from the seat.

Though the two parties have parted ways, there still remains a complicated equation with Owaisi openly declaring support for Ambedkar who is contesting from Akola. The Akola unit of AIMIM also gave the VBA a written letter of support stating the same.

In a statement on 6 May, Ambedkar attacked the AIMIM for not following 'alliance Dharma' and urged Muslims to "choose wisely."

But given Jaleel's popularity among the Muslims of the constituency, it remains to be seen how many of the Muslim votes can Khan split from Jaleel.

Harshvardhav Jadhav, an independent candidate, was considered to be the prime reason behind Khaire's defeat in 2019.

The traditional Maratha votes, that stood by the Sena for almost four decades, switched to Jadhav in 2019 following agitations for reservation the previous year, with Aurangabad being one of the worst hit places in Marathwada.

Jadhav, a two-time MLA from Kannad Assembly seat (won on MNS ticket in 2009 and Sena ricket in 2014) and somebody who was closely associated with the Maratha Kranti Morcha (MKM), emerged to be a clear choice for the Marathas. The MKM was at the forefront of leading the Maratha movement in 2018 and 2019. While the agitation was at its peak in 2018, he resigned from from the Shiv Sena claiming the party had asked him to "keep quiet" on the Maratha issue. These factors worked for him.

Jadhav is also the ex son-in-law of BJP stalwart, five-time Jalna MP, and then state BJP chief Raosaheb Danve, a fact that Khaire blamed for his defeat while accusing Danve of lobbying for his son-in-law.

This time, too, Jadhav is contesting as an independent candidate. His political fortunes, however, have dwindled since. He contested the Assembly elections from Kannad later in October 2019 hoping for a third term but was unsuccessful. He had also announced retirement from active politics in 2020, which made his candidature this year surprising for many.

The clear agenda of Jadhav's campaign this time is that unlike Jaleel, Khaire, and Bhumre, he "stayed true to his ideology and didn't betray his voters."

"I didn't betray my voters unlike them. Jaleel split with VBA and betrayed those who voted for him, the Sena split. But I have remained loyal to my 2.83 lakh voters who voted for me in 2019," Jadhav said at an event on 5 May.

The third and arguably the biggest factor that is further going to lead to division of votes is the Shiv Sena split. While Shiv Sena (UBT) has reposed faith in Khaire despite the 2019 defeat, Eknath Shinde has fielded strongman Sandipan Bhumre.

For Khaire, the sympathy riding behind Uddhav Thackeray is the biggest hope that may get him back several voters that lost in 2019 while anti-incumbency peaked for him. Khaire, now 72, has also been playing up on voters' sentiments by calling this his "last election."

But Bhumre being in the fray is bound to split the traditional Sena votes.

Even this time, the Maratha factor is as strong with the OBC vs Maratha friction being stronger than before. Clearly Bhumre, a Maratha, was Shinde's calculated choice against Khaire who is an OBC. However, Marathas also currently being vocally against the ruling alliance in Maharashtra may just tip their votes towards Khaire more than what are being anticipated.

A four-time MLA from Paithan, Bhumre is currently a minister in Shinde's cabinet and is also serving as the guardian minister of Sambhaji Nagar.

While Bhumre has been targeting Khaire for not solving the constituency's water crisis and blaming him for his 2019 debacle, Khaire has been playing up the 'gaddar' (traitor) factor.

What worked in the past for the Shiv Sena was the image of a staunch Hindutva crusader in the 'Khan ki Baan' format of politics.

However, Thackeray steered the Shiv Sena in a different direction post 2019. Ahead of the elections, Khaire's camp was seen putting up hoardings to wish Eid.

In a video that went viral last week, Khaire was heard praising the Muslim community for "showing restraint" during the communal unrest that rocked the city a day ahead of Ram Navami in April 2023.

Khaire even visited an Idgah on Eid last month where both him and Jaleel came face to face, hugged, and exchanged greetings.

Jaleel's sabhas in rural areas, meanwhile, have been focusing on trying to cater to the non-Muslim voters, with the party often donning saffron scarves and caps with the party name and logo.

The varied colours of party props were also visible the day Jaleel filed his nomination on 25 April. Most of his rallies have decorations donning green flags of the party, saffron flags, as well as the blue 'Jai Bhim' flags.

'A Muslim MP worked for development without a communal agenda' has been an agenda he has tried to cater to.

"In this era of social media, every young person has a smartphone, even they know what is happening and what is not. So, it is not easy to fool people. If we take the speeches of Chandrakant Khaire from the past 10-20 years, they were all based on Hindutva. But he was jolted when he saw that even after those speeches, he did not get votes, even he realised that change is coming," Jaleel told The Quint.

But while being surrounded by three saffron parties (including BJP) in Aurangabad, shedding the 'Muslim party' image may still remain a challenge for AIMIM in Aurangabad.

In a rally in Aurangabad last week, Owaisi targeted the Sena over polarisation.

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