2 months ago
87
India’s economic growth has upgraded to 8.4% in the third quarter of 2023-24. The National Statistics Office has given India’s GDP growth estimates for this year to 7.6% from 7.3% estimated in early January, even as it scaled down its 7.2% growth estimate for 2022-23 to 7%.
The NSO, in its advance estimate said that the Gross Value Added (GVA) in the economy is estimated to rise 6.9% this year, rising from a revised estimate of 6.7% GVA growth in 2022-23. The NSO had earlier pegged last year’s GVA growth at 7%.
The October to December 2023 quarter is reckoned to have clocked an 8.4% rise in GDP, up from a revised estimate of 8.2% in the first quarter of this fiscal and 8.1% in the second quarter (Q2). Earlier NSO estimates had pegged a 7.7% uptick in real GDP in the first half of 2023-24.
Interestingly, GVA growth is reckoned to have slid to just 6.5% in Q3 from revised estimates of 8.2% and 7.7% in Q1 and Q2, respectively.
In Q3, GVA growth from the farm sector is reckoned to have slipped into a 0.8% contraction, compared with a 5.2% uptick in the same quarter of 2022-23 and a 1.6% rise in the previous quarter. For the full year, farm GVA is now expected to grow just 0.7% compared with 4.7% in 2022-23 and 1.8% projected in this year’s first advance estimates released in early January.
Between October and December 2023, GVA growth slid sequentially in five of the seven other key segments of economic activity, including Mining (7.5% from 11.1% in Q2), Electricity, Gas and other utility services (9% from 10.5%), and Construction (9.5% from 13.5%). Manufacturing GVA rose 11.6% in Q3 from a 4.8% contraction in the same quarter of 2022-23 and a 14.4% surge in Q2 of this year.
For the full year, Construction GVA is estimated to rise 10.7% from 9.4% a year ago, with Manufacturing GVA bouncing 8.5% on the back of a 2.2% contraction in 2022-23. Financial, real estate and professional services are pegged to grow 8.2% (9.1% last year), while Mining GVA growth is expected to jump to 8.1% from 1.9% last year.
GVA growth in the employment-intensive Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting segments is expected to almost halve to 6.5% in 2023-24 from 12% in 2022-23. As of last month, the NSO had estimated 2022-23 GVA growth in this sector at 14%, while this year was projected to grow 6.3%.
