In J&K, A Lack of Unity In Leadership Hints At Fractured Politics Ahead Of Polls

On the night of 4 August 2019, almost all major Kashmir-based political parties closed their ranks and came together to jointly oppose the revocation of Article 370. Representatives from around the seven parties descended on the foothills of Gupkar – an affluent lake side locality in Srinagar where most former chief ministers are located, marched together, voicing anger over and rejection of the momentous decisions that were to take place the following day.

Such political posturing was supposed to indicate a broad-based unity that ought to complicate the matters for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as it moved to scrap the erstwhile state’s autonomous status.

Yet more than four years later, such unity has all but dissipated as the Union Territory (UT) heads into its first major electoral exercise since 2019.

The fractured political scene in J&K has been exacerbated by the decision of the two biggest political parties – the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – to strike out separate paths rather than fight in an alliance as had been agreed to. But how did such a turnaround come about?

J&K has five parliamentary seats, two of which are in the Hindu-majority Jammu region, and three in the Muslim-dominated Kashmir. During the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, it was the BJP which won two Jammu seats while the NC romped home three in Kashmir. 

Some areas of South Kashmir seat like Shopian and Pulwama that have traditionally been bastions of PDP have been annexed to the Central Kashmir seat.

Certain segments of the Srinagar constituency such as Beerwah and Budgam (both NC strongholds) are now with North Kashmir seat. Likewise, Rajouri and Poonch areas that were part of the Jammu constituency (and where the BJP is courting the Pahari population by doling out reservation benefits to them) have been attached to South Kashmir.

The BJP wagered, and perhaps correctly, that a grand reshuffle on this scale was likely to frustrate the attempt to unify Opposition in J&K as the constituent parties vie for their respective interests.  

This is exactly what happened on 16 February this year when NC President Farooq Abdullah declared that the party would fight the Lok Sabha elections independently. PDP, which was aligned to NC via two groupings – INDIA Alliance and People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) – was thrown into a state of surprise. 

“We were hoping to present a unified face in this election. Farooq Abdullah, as the senior most politician in Kashmir would have covered himself in glory had he successfully seen this moment through to success,” Nayeem Akhtar, senior PDP leader and former Minister told The Quint.

For its part, the BJP has not fielded any candidate on the seat. In a recent interview, Union Home Minister Amit Shah clearly suggested that the party will focus on two Jammu-based seats.

He said that, “We don’t have a sufficient base in Kashmir to win an election. We have sufficient patience. We need to spend more time building, expanding, and strengthening our organisation in Kashmir. We will keep working and wait for the people to embrace BJP on their own.”

In Srinagar parliamentary seat, NC is fielding Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, a prominent Shia Muslim leader. Once again, this choice appears to have been informed by the new electoral realities occasioned by the delimitation.

Ruhullah’s influence permeates the Shia-dominated pockets of the Central Kashmir district of Budgam which were previously part of Srinagar, but have now been annexed to North Kashmir, which is generally viewed as a stronghold of Lone’s party, the PC.

“From NC’s perspective, victory in Srinagar is a foregone conclusion,” explained Zafar Choudhary, a senior editor and analyst. “The party honoured Ruhullah by fielding him from Srinagar, and now his Shia voters, a large percentage of which are also spread across parts of North Kashmir, will vote for Omar. At least that’s how NC sees it.”

Choudhary added that this wasn’t the only factor that the NC expected to work in their favour. The party has won almost 10 of the 13 elections held for the Srinagar seat and 9 out of the 12 held for the North Kashmir seat so far.

"When a senior leader like Abdullah decides to contest North, the entire party rank and file automatically redoubles their efforts to connect with the voters and energise the campaign,” he said.

That leaves Mehbooba Mufti locked in a one-to-one battle with NC’s Mian Altaf in the South while her party has fielded Waheed Rehman Para, an influential youth leader who was jailed by the Modi government under terrorism charges and is now out on bail, in Srinagar. 

Para’s candidature is also explained by the fact that parts of Pulwama, including his hometown Tahab, which were previously part of the South Kashmir seat are now with the Srinagar constituency. In North Kashmir, the party is nominating Mir Mohammad Fayaz, a former MP. 

“Until 1996, the parties in J&K used to form governments on their own,” explained one Kashmir-based political analyst. “NC participated in 1996 polls amid raging militancy and promised to restore J&K’s eroded autonomy. It even passed a resolution to that effect in the Assembly.”

He said that the autonomy resolution of NC frightened the New Delhi establishment to the extent that it resolved that no single party must win majority seats on its own in future. This is evidenced by the memoir My Country, My Life of the senior BJP leader LK Advani who explains in detail how "the nation was shocked on 26 June 2000" when the resolution was adopted.

“After that, we saw the rise of PDP. And NC was gradually reduced from 40 seats to 28 in 2002, and then to 15 in 2014. All subsequent governments in J&K have been coalition governments since,” the analyst added.

“A major factor in making Kashmir a site of enduring conflict has been power politics. That is to say how you are able to create an issue, and exploit it for political ends,” Choudhary, the editor and analyst said. “It has been so since 1953.”

(Shakir Mir is an independent journalist. He has also written for The Wire.in, Article 14, Caravan Magazine, Firstpost, The Times of India and more. He tweets at @shakirmir. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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