Darjeeling Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Will There Be a Split in the Gorkha Vote?

When the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) released its manifesto on 14 April, for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, something that was conspicuously absent from its list of poll promises was the issue of 'Gorkhaland'.

The promise of a separate state (demanded by the Nepali-speaking Gorkha community) is a key plank of the saffron party and that has contributed heavily to its popularity in the Darjeeling Lok Sabha constituency that the BJP has successfully retained since 2009.

In fact, in the 2019 general elections, Raju Bista, who is the sitting MP from the region and is seeking a re-election this year, won by over four lakh votes – among the highest winning margins in West Bengal.

Since the late 1980s, the Gorkha vote (who form the majority population in Darjeeling) used to move in bulk towards one side, thus benefiting the BJP since the 2009 general elections.

In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP's manifesto stated that if voted to power, the party would “sympathetically examine and appropriately consider the long pending demands of the Gorkhas, the Adivasis and other people of Darjeeling and Dooars region.” 

The mention of the Gorkhas' demand for a separate state in its manifesto bore fruit at that time as BJP candidate Jaswant Singh had won the Darjeeling seat by a margin of more than 2.53 lakh votes, with the support of Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM).

This was the first time the saffron party won this seat. However, it doesn't appear to have taken any concrete steps to actualise the demand for Gorkhaland even after coming to power at the Centre in 2014.

In 2014 too, the BJP had made no mention of the Gorkhaland issue in its manifesto. However, a backlash in the hills prompted it to draft an addendum to the manifesto.

But in 2024, the BJP has kept the Gorkhaland issue out of its manifesto. Why? Experts are of the opinion that it is due to fears that including it could hamper its prospects in southern Bengal, where the BJP is yet to make inroads thanks to the Trinamool Congress (TMC).

“Among the Bengali population, there is a certain sentiment about Darjeeling and that the BJP currently wants to capture Bengal. It is looking at the bigger picture," political analyst Suman Bhattacharya told The Quint.

"On the Gorkhaland issue, they will lose only one seat in Darjeeling. But including the contentious issue of Gorkhaland will mean the possibility of losing out on the remaining Lok Sabha seats in Bengal and they don’t want to spoil those votes," he added.

However, that hasn't stopped the party from campaigning on it.

On 9 March, Prime Minister Narendra Modi while addressing a rally in Siliguri, had said that his party was “nearing a solution” to address the concerns of the Gorkha community.

"BJP is always sensitive towards the struggles and challenges faced by our Gorkha brothers and sisters. BJP has always worked to address their concerns. Now, we are nearing a solution for them… BJP will continue its efforts to fulfil your aspirations,” PM Modi had said.

BJP MP Raju Bista, who is seeking re-election from the seat, recently told the local media that the “process of finding a permanent political solution for the Darjeeling hills has begun and will be achieved within the next five years."

Bhattacharya pointed out that there have been some new developments in the political scenario in Darjeeling.

"Till the last general elections, hill politics was largely dominated by parties like the Bimal Gurung-led Gorkha Janamukti Morcha (GJM), Gorkha National Liberation Front (GNLF). Then, in 2021, two new political parties came up – the Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha (BGPM, which is led by Anit Thapa) and Hamro Party (which is led by Ajay Edwards, who is the owner of the iconic Glenary's eatery)," he said.

"While the BGPM fared well in the Gorkhaland Territorial Administration (GTA) elections in 2022 and the panchayat elections in 2023 (that was held after a gap of 23 years), the Hamro Party emerged victorious in the 2022 Darjeeling municipal elections, which sort of helped establish their credence in the region. Parties like the GJM and the GNLF have been more or less pushed to the sidelines. They are no longer a political force anymore," Bhattacharya added.

For the Lok Sabha polls, BGPM has allied with the TMC while the Hamro Party has tied up with the Congress.

Sovna Khati, an assistant professor of political science at the University of North Bengal, told The Quint that it is likely that there will a split in Gorkha votes this time.

"For the past 15 years, the BJP has been promising a solution to the Gorkhaland issue, yet they have done nothing about it. They are sort of tired and disappointed about the leaders dangling it as a carrot before every election. They think the leaders are not sincere," Khati said.

Three of the seven Assembly segments of the Darjeeling Lok Sabha seat – Darjeeling, Kurseong and Kalimpong – have a majority of Gorkha voters.

"One of the primary reasons Raju came to power in 2019 right after the 2017 agitation was because of which a strong anti-TMC sentiment developed in the hills. That will, however, not necessarily be the case this time," Khati further said.

Apart from Raju Bista, who is the first BJP candidate from the region to have received a ticket twice, others in the fray are Gopal Lama and Munish Tamang.

The BGPM, which has been known be an ally of the TMC, has thrown its weight behind Lama, who is a former bureaucrat.

Meanwhile, Edwards' Hamro Party has tied up with the Congress and brought in Delhi-based professor Munish Tamang as the third player. Tamang, who is from Kalimpong district, is an English professor at Motilal Nehru College in Delhi.

He had also been the national president of the pan-India Bharatiya Gorkha Parisang, a post that he relinquished after the Congress nominated him as the Lok Sabha candidate.

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