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The paradigm shift that occurred in Maharashtra politics in 2019, when the then united Shiv Sena walked out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to form the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, along with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in the State, is perhaps best exemplified by the fact that leaders of the Muslim community are now looking at the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction) as its most likely bet in these elections, even from among the MVA constituents.
According to Ghulam Arif, convenor of the “Community Talking” platform, a debating group among the Muslim community in Maharashtra, it has not been an easy journey from the community’s alienation from the Shiv Sena since before the 1992 riots following the destruction of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya, to being the first choice among its voters, sometimes even over the Congress as its relative strength makes it a more formidable opponent to the BJP.
“Currently, there is an existential crisis in the Muslim community, who fear that a return of the BJP may lead to erosion of constitutional rights of minorities. Any reservations that Muslims have about the Shiv Sena (UBT) is superceded by this sense of crisis,” he said. “Unlike Muslims in the Konkan belt, where society is better integrated on religious lines, Mumbai Muslims had felt alienated by the Shiv Sena,” he added. Muslims comprise nearly 14% of the population and are largely in the urban centres and some scatters in the Konkan region.
However, none of the MVA constituents have fielded any Muslim candidate in these Lok Sabha polls, a fact that has led to the resignation of Maharashtra Congress working president Arif Naseem Khan.
Farid Khan, socio-political activist and convenor of Urdu Karavan, an organisation devoted to the promotion of Urdu, does point out to the lack of positive affirmation when politicians come to solicit support.
“We are literally like a barren field, which is to be ringfenced but nothing is to be spent to cultivate it,” said Mr Khan. In fact, a few days back, Rais Khan, Samajwadi Party (SP) MLA from Bhiwandi (East), who recently also quit the party over differences, held a meeting of Muslim community members exhorting them to vote for the MVA constituents as an “extraordinary” situation was prevailing in the country.
Mr. Khan, however does add that the two years of the MVA saw not just the COVID pandemic, but also the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) which preceded it, both challenges were handled by that government, according to him, “keeping everyone’s sensitivities in mind”.
Mr. Arif, also does say that under the previous MVA government there were four Muslim Ministers, which is a large number for any government that has governed in the past. The Shiv Sena (UBT), he says, has also been tweaking its Hindutva messaging, saying, in various outreaches, that it believes in Hindutva but that its version was “different” from that of the BJP and its allies.
In Western Maharashtra, Shabbir Ansari, the founding president of the All India Muslim OBC organisation, who had agitated as early as 1982 for the implementation of the recommendations of the Mandal commission recommendations says that apart from tactical reasons, the Muslim community, especially OBCs among Muslims were heartened by the promise of a Caste Census promised by MVA constituents.
He holds no truck with outfits like the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) of Prakash Ambedkar or even Naseem Khan quitting. “If Nassem Khan is so sure of his support base he should take the ticket from the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM),” he said. He also warns against the VBA stating : “yeh sab sirf political baat karte hain (they are only talking politically).”
The 2024 Lok Sabha polls are being seen as a semi-final to the final reckoning of the dramatic redrawing of political boundaries in Maharashtra with the one act of walking out of the NDA by Uddhav Thackeray. The Assembly polls just a few months away will be the real test, but for now, for the Muslim community, Shiv Sena (UBT) has emerged as the “Right choice” in a tough field.
